Can Trump turn the Silver State to gold?

A deeper look at Nevada, where Trump is outperforming his 2020 numbers more than any other battleground state in the country

Nevada is the only state Donald Trump lost twice that he might be favored to win in 2024. It’s also, effectively, a city-state: more than two thirds of the population lives in Las Vegas, with much of the rest in a small geographic cluster surrounding Reno. The rest is some of the most sparsely populated land in the United States, with 10% of the population and 85% of the state’s land area owned by the federal government.

The GOP has not won Nevada in a presidential election since 2004, and has lost the biggest prizes federally, winning just two Senate elections since. Under the storied “Reid machine,” Nevada Democrats have earned a reputation for eking out close elections, especially for Senate — with narrow wins by Harry Reid in 2010, Catherine Cortez-Masto in 2016, Jacky Rosen in 2018, and Cortez-Masto again in 2022. 

But the Democratic tide that flowed in during the Obama years is now ebbing. Nevada is one of the most working class states in the union — 71.4% of 2020 voters did not have college degrees, the most of any battleground state. This has meant the GOP has done better in the Trump years, with the state voting to the right of the country in 2020 and electing Republican Joe Lombardo governor in 2022. Nonetheless, the trend has not been as fast-moving as in the Blue Wall states or another minority-heavy Sun Belt state like Florida. So, the Silver State has mostly continued to hand out silver medals to GOP candidates. And the fact that there are a lot of areas that are just narrowly Democratic in the state’s urban centers means that political geography actually favors Democrats legislatively. Can Trump reverse the GOP’s string of defeats to win Nevada in November?

How Nevada Got Here

Through the 1990s, Nevada was a small state with a reputation as competitive but Republican-leaning at the federal level. With the nation’s fastest population growth, especially in and around Las Vegas, this began to change at the turn of the millennium. And with this shift came much more diversity. Today, Nevada has a mix of racial and ethnic minorities that closely reflects the country as a whole but is unique among states. While most states have one dominant minority group — outside Hawaii, Blacks or Hispanics — all minorities are well represented in Nevada, with double digit percentages of Blacks and Hispanics and the fourth largest AAPI population in the mainland United States.

In 2000, Nevada was voting 4 points to the right of the nation. In 2004, this lean had eroded to just 0.2 points. And in 2008, Obama won the state by 12.5 points — more than 5 points more than his national margin. 

2008 was a breaking point for the state’s growth. The financial crisis ravaged a real estate market more over-leveraged than any other in the country. That in itself does a lot to explain the state’s dramatic shift left in 2008. But it also meant slower growth and more demographic stability in the years following.

And so Nevada began to inch back right. By 2016, it was a bona-fide swing state again, with a Clinton margin of 2.4 points, closely matching the national margin, and this was exactly Joe Biden’s margin four years later. But while the country swung a couple of points against Trump in 2020, Nevada stood pat. Polls this year showing Trump stronger among minorities than he was in 2020 translate to a stronger than average swing in Nevada, pushing the state for now into the Trump column and placing it right of the Rust Belt battlegrounds.

But the state’s shift right has been far from uniform, as seen in the graphic below, looking at margins and leans statewide in the two major urban counties. Nevada’s Trump-era shift right has been driven by the majority-minority Las Vegas area. While Washoe County, home to Reno, swung wildly in the 2000s, it has moved hardly at all since 2012 and recent trends are worse for the GOP there. 

A Regional Overview of Nevada

Perhaps no state can benefit more from breaking with traditional county-based heuristics than Nevada, a state where more than two thirds of the population is concentrated in a single county. In Georgia and Pennsylvania, I built collections of precincts that represented distinct political and demographic archetypes. I’ve done the same in Nevada, again with the help of Colin Miller’s Redistricter. In doing so, I found out that the state is not nearly as balkanized as its brethren to the east. People from different racial and ethnic groups live in close proximity, and there’s a relative lack of an upper class cordoned off from the rest of the population. The state’s high levels of integration make it harder to suss out distinct regional shifts. 

So, the big leftward swings we see in places like the Atlanta or Philly suburbs just didn’t happen in Nevada. Nor do you really see the same kind of 15 or 20 point swings to Trump you see in majority Latino areas in Florida or Texas. While virtually everywhere — college educated or not, has gotten redder since 2008, the shifts vary less geographically. That’s in large part because most of the state’s patterns of settlement are a product of the last 30 years, with integration of different races and social classes the new norm. 

The Las Vegas Metro

Vegas Suburban Crescent — 29% of the vote, R+4 in 2020, D+1.7 since 2016

• To whatever extent Las Vegas has suburbs — rather than just being one big suburb — the crescent hugging the mountainous edges of the Vegas valley from Henderson all the way up to manicured subdivisions of Summerlin does the most to fit the bill. Casting almost 3 in 10 of the state’s votes, it’s the main bulwark of the state’s college-educated population, while still being solidly middle class: 37% of voters here have degrees, about the national average, and about 12% have incomes over $200,000. That’s in comparison to around 20% in the Philly suburbs and 25% in the northern Atlanta suburbs, which have college-educated majorities. 

• While I normally would like to create a region smaller than 30% of a state, that’s impractical here: only a small smattering of disparate precincts in Las Vegas have college-educated majorities differentiated from the suburban middle class. 

• Due to being whiter, the area remains to the right of the rest of the Vegas metro, though this fact makes it the only area in the metro that trended against Trump in 2020. Whites are 62% of adults — and certainly more among voters. Civic participation is higher here than anywhere else in the metro, and with lower turnout elsewhere, it punches above its weight — with 24% of the total population casting 29% of the state’s vote. 

• The area trended more strongly right than any other part of the Vegas metro between 2008 and 2016 (precinct data is missing for 2012, the usual pre-Trump comparison point), but education polarization was apparent in the 2016-20 trends, when it swung 1.6 points left while the rest of the Vegas metro, more downscale and minority — moved right. 

Las Vegas by share of adults 25+ with Bachelor’s degrees

Vegas Working Class Melting Pot — 20% of the vote, D+22 in 2020, R+1.6 since 2016

• Geographically, this region is divided between a cluster of new-growth suburbs in the North Las Vegas and downtown neighborhoods surrounding the Strip (where any wealthier precincts are grouped in with the Suburban Crescent). 

• When Las Vegas was smaller, there were distinct racial enclaves of Latinos and African Americans centered in North Las Vegas. As the city grew, these residents and new movers fanned out into the region I call the Vegas Working Class Melting Pot, which sees working- and middle-class residents of all races living in integrated neighborhoods.

• With a majority-minority population, the Working Class Melting Pot leans Democratic, but trended slightly Republican in 2020. 42% of adults are white, 31% are Hispanic, 16% are Black, and 9% are Asian—a healthy mix. Just 19% have college degrees. It’s the second most powerful voting bloc in the Las Vegas metro, casting 20% of the state’s vote, but with lower turnout than the Suburban Crescent. While both areas have nearly equal population shares, the Working Class Melting Pot casts 9 percent less of the statewide vote.

Black & Hispanic Population Change in the Las Vegas Metro, 1990-2020

Vegas Asian Growth — 10% of the vote, D+11 in 2020, R+1.0 since 2016

• Covering Enterprise and parts of Spring Valley in the southwest corner of the Las Vegas valley is an area still growing quickly in population thanks in large part to an influx of Asian Americans—Filipinos are the largest group, followed by Chinese.  

• While only 25% Asian by voting age population, this area contains one of the most significant Asian American voting blocs outside New York and California, and the most important in a swing state. 

• The Vegas Asian Growth region grew 42% in its vote totals between 2016 and 2020, more than any other area in the state. Between 1990 and 2010, total population growth was 2,456% — code for there being virtually nothing there back in 1990 — while the Suburban Crescent grew 779%. Growth was still a healthy 37% between 2010 and 2020, followed by the Suburban Crescent at 22%. 

  

  Room for growth in Enterprise, NV

• Like other minority-heavy areas, Vegas Asian Growth trended a bit right in 2020 with some indication of the trend continuing in 2022, when Joe Lombardo and Adam Laxalt overperformed Trump in this Asian-heavy area by more than their overperformance in the Working Class Melting Pot. This will be an area to watch for racial realignment in 2024. 

• This area is solidly middle class with pockets of prosperity. It’s the second most educated area in the metro at 33% with college degrees and 8% have incomes over $200,000. 

Las Vegas Population Growth, 2000-2020

Vegas Minority Working Class — 8% of the vote, D+39 in 2020, R+7.2 since 2016

• If there was a clear trend anywhere between 2016 and 2020, it was in the most densely Latino parts of Las Vegas and Nevada. These working class areas where Latinos form a majority swung 7 points since 2016. That’s not as much as Latino swings in other states like Texas and Florida, but this is, again, partly a function of an absence of entirely Latino population centers. The area is 55% Latino among adults — and less as a share of voters — 27% white, and 15% Black. 

• Nevertheless, margins here are still solidly Democratic: 39 points in 2016. If Trump can significantly erode this margin, he has a good shot at winning the state. The area was inelastic between 2008 and 2016, voting for the Democrat by 46 points both times. 

• Joe Lombardo outperformed Trump here more than any other part of the state — by 4.6 points. Even Adam Laxalt outperformed, by around 2 points, his best such performance statewide. This is evidence of continuing racial realignment after 2020. 

• This region is contained exclusively in long-settled parts of Las Vegas that have grown at a less torrid pace than elsewhere: 57% between 1990 and 2010 and just 5% between 2010 and 2020. The bulk of Las Vegas’s racial and ethnic minorities in the 1990s lived here; now, many have spread out to more “suburban” locales. This is largely the same story as in other states.

• As a result of this relative demographic stability, this region has the highest percentage of people born in Nevada in the Las Vegas area — but that number is just 30%. It also has the highest number of foreign-born, also 30%. Just 1.5% earn over $200,000 a year. Less than 10% have a BA. Just 45% only speak English. With a 28% voter turnout in 2020, these neighborhoods have 13% of the state’s population but cast just 8% of the vote. 

Reno/Tahoe

Reno Middle Class — 4% of the vote, D+19 in 2020, D+5.3 since 2016

• As we move up to the northern population centers in and around Reno, the numbers get smaller, but the trends get friendlier for Democrats. Off a smaller voting base, these areas taken together almost canceled out the Republican trend in Las Vegas, leading to an unchanged margin from 2016 to 2020. 

• The trends in the urban and middle class parts of Reno are arguably worst for Republicans of any part of the state. The wealthy areas around Lake Tahoe were slightly worse, but given that this area is much less wealthy and well-educated, the 5.3 point shift from 2016 to 2020 stands out. The Reno Middle Class also had the worst shift from Donald Trump 2016 to Adam Laxalt 2022 — 8 points. 

• Demographically, the Reno Middle Class — and Reno as a whole — differs significantly from Las Vegas. The region is the only 60%+ white area to have voted for Biden in 2020. Latinos far outnumber Blacks, in contrast to the Vegas metro, and Asians are between 6 and 8 percent of the population in the more urban or college-educated parts of the Reno metro. 32% have Bachelor’s degrees.

Reno Working Class — 4% of the vote, D+22 in 2020, D+1.0 since 2016

• 52% white and 37% Latino, the working class parts of Reno swung 1 point left in 2020. Underscoring the more negative trends for Republicans in Reno than Vegas, Trump was unable to score any gains in this working class area with large numbers of Latinos. Of note, even Joe Lombardo, a statewide winner, performed worse than Trump 2020 here.

• Compared to the Vegas Minority Working Class, the Reno Working Class region is 16% college educated (vs. just 10% in Vegas), and incomes over $200,000 are similarly rare, at 2%. At 34%, its turnout is stronger, and its foreign born share of the population is lower. And it’s significantly whiter — 52% vs. 27%. As a result, it starts out less Democratic, with a 22-point advantage, but even with those shifts, the trends are worse for Trump than they would be in the Vegas metro.

The Republican North — 9% of the vote, R+21 in 2020, D+1.7 since 2016

• Counterbalancing urban Reno is a northern and western strip that votes just as Republican as Reno proper does Democratic and casts slightly more votes. As a whole, this makes the region as a whole evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. 

• A pattern we see in Nevada is lasting Republican strength and less erosion in suburban areas, something we see in the Republican North. Just 26% have degrees here, but higher incomes are more common (at 8%). This has added up to a long-term trend as strong as the one in rural areas — with an 18 point shift right between 2008 and 2016. 

• The Republican North is rural-adjacent but with some suburban, high-growth elements that make it an interesting area to watch to see if it can hold the Democratic trend in urban Reno in check. But — as we’ll see in the analysis of the rural areas — the Nevada rurals and exurbs might be getting maxed out for Republicans, with a 1.7 point swing left from 2016 to 2020. Lombardo did perform 2 points better than Trump 2020 here, but only marginally better than Trump 2016 — when working class Las Vegas performed anywhere between 4 and 11 points better for Lombardo than Trump 2016. 

Greater Tahoe — 6% of the vote, R+1 in 2020, D+5.5 since 2016

• Greater Tahoe was designed as a sink for the college-educated, high-income people in northern Nevada. Hugging the border with California, it extends from its namesake Lake Tahoe all the way up to the Reno hills. Most of the Republican strength here tends to be concentrated south of Reno proper, where all but a few precincts with ski resorts vote Republican. 

• Greater Tahoe is a true outlier in Nevada. A majority have college diplomas. 19% have incomes over $200,000. And the shift left in 2020 was noticeable, 5.5 points, slightly outpacing middle class Reno’s shift. You can’t draw a high-income region this large in Las Vegas, which is unusual, since the metro is three times larger. 

• If you’re guessing that this area is stocked full of wealthy liberal elites, think again. It still voted for Trump, by less than a point. Lombardo had a decent outperformance here, winning by 4 points. But the weight of college-educated people in this region has made it the only region in Nevada to shift left from 2008. 

Rural Nevada

Red Rurals — 10% of the vote, R+45, D+1.7 since 2020

• Representing the bulk of the state’s geographic area, the Red Rurals cast just 10% of the vote in 2020. 

• The Red Rurals led the way for Trump with a 19 point swing right from 2008 to 2016, but a Republican margin of 45 points seems to be the max — hit by Trump 2016, Trump 2020, and Lombardo 2022. Trump slipped half a point between 2016 and 2020. 

• GOP margins here are being eroded slightly with growth at the edges of the Las Vegas and Reno metros, but also, many pure rural counties got slightly bluer in 2020. 

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