No. 414 | September 4, 2026
🗳️ The case for a bad Republican midterm
A couple of weeks ago, I laid out the case for why the polls may be overstating Democrats again. That point coexists with the fact that this should be a pretty bad election cycle for Republicans. The main question is how much the GOP’s structural advantages — redistricting, races on red terrain — insulate them from the full effects of a bad midterm.
It’s not hyperbole to say the political environment is worse for them than in 2018, even though the seat losses — at least in the House — should be nowhere near as bad.
First, let’s take Donald Trump’s net approval rating. At -20, it’s 8 points worse than Joe Biden’s at this point four years ago, and 7 points worse than Trump heading into the 2018 midterms.
Then there’s the economy. In Civiqs’ tracking, 75% of registered voters rated the national economy as good and just 18% as bad at this point in 2018. Today, that’s flipped: 33% good and 64% bad. There’s a night and day dif…
