Interestingly Trump really exploded in California in 2020 increasing his vote total by a Third. Keep in mind that CA is one of the most Catholic States in the US & since it was never a Territory retains much of its original Spanish/Mexican structure. Interestingly the third most common Religion in CA is Hispanic Protestants which is only behind Roman Catholics & Mormons according to Pew. One reason I think that the Electoral College is getting closer to the popular vote is that in 2016 Clinton won the National Popular Vote by 2.8M but her margin in CA was 4.3M meaning Trump won the other 49 States by 1,5M.
In 2020 Biden won CA by 5.5M votes but the National Vote by 7M votes meaning Biden won the other 49 states by 1.5M votes. That's why Biden won the Electoral College. I think Harris will repeat this but it would be interesting for major Polls to start looking at National Popular vote w/o CA just like they do Registered vs likely Voters. Since 1out of 8 American voters is a CA resident this would be informative.
Also since Hispanic Protestants are concentrated in CA, NY & other Blue States that might be the real story of the Latino voter move toward Conservatives.
This makes no sense. If Harris is up by only 2 points (let’s say 3 million votes) nationally today and she gets 5 million more votes in CA then she is down in the other 49 states by 2 million. And there is a one million surplus for Harris in NY too. Do you believe the polls have been fixed from 2020? There may be a 2-3 point error in Trump’s favor.
Interestingly Trump really exploded in California in 2020 increasing his vote total by a Third. Keep in mind that CA is one of the most Catholic States in the US & since it was never a Territory retains much of its original Spanish/Mexican structure. Interestingly the third most common Religion in CA is Hispanic Protestants which is only behind Roman Catholics & Mormons according to Pew. One reason I think that the Electoral College is getting closer to the popular vote is that in 2016 Clinton won the National Popular Vote by 2.8M but her margin in CA was 4.3M meaning Trump won the other 49 States by 1,5M.
In 2020 Biden won CA by 5.5M votes but the National Vote by 7M votes meaning Biden won the other 49 states by 1.5M votes. That's why Biden won the Electoral College. I think Harris will repeat this but it would be interesting for major Polls to start looking at National Popular vote w/o CA just like they do Registered vs likely Voters. Since 1out of 8 American voters is a CA resident this would be informative.
Also since Hispanic Protestants are concentrated in CA, NY & other Blue States that might be the real story of the Latino voter move toward Conservatives.
This makes no sense. If Harris is up by only 2 points (let’s say 3 million votes) nationally today and she gets 5 million more votes in CA then she is down in the other 49 states by 2 million. And there is a one million surplus for Harris in NY too. Do you believe the polls have been fixed from 2020? There may be a 2-3 point error in Trump’s favor.