Wes Moore and JB Pritzker make their debut on the 2028 Democratic primary model

Gavin's lead narrows with a bigger field

Note: This model has been updated on October 16, with the introduction of JB Pritzker and Wes Moore as candidates.

The latest 2028 Democratic primary model has Gavin Newsom ahead in a nine candidate field with a 24.6% chance of winning across 10,000 simulations.¹ That’s down from his initial 29.7% odds in a seven candidate field. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s odds remain essentially unchanged at 19.3%, while Pete Buttigieg goes from 13.4% to 11.8%, Gretchen Whitmer from 11.3% to 11.6%, Josh Shapiro from 12.2% to 9.9%, Cory Booker from 9.0% to 8.8%, and Andy Beshear from 5.1% to 5.2%.

In their debut, Wes Moore has a 5.7% probability of being nominated while JB Pritzker is at 3.3%.

Watch out as future candidates are added. The increasing size of the field does put a dent in the odds of some of the more “mainstream” candidates like Newsom and Buttigieg as it ups the odds of fragmentation.

In describing this model, I use the word “simulation.” I think that’s perhaps an even more useful description of this than a model. This project recognizes the reality that there is a campaign still to be waged, and the quality of the individual campaigns matters deeply. How candidates “play” the game — deciding to invest resources in certain states or doubling down on certain demographics — is decisive. By simulating the mechanics of a primary, we can tweak certain inputs and then see what the payoff is in terms of changing probabilities.

As I mentioned before, we start with a “fundamentals” model. Prior to the race starting, the model applies random variation to each candidate’s starting fundamentals score. And then the model goes through each of the 57 contests, adjusting candidate strength based on home states, state demographics, state ideology, and momentum from previous contests. The model has dropout mechanics after each round and simulates the effects of ideological lane consolidation.

You’ll notice here that while AOC has the highest fundamentals score — highest on charisma and money — the model doesn’t consider her the favorite. That’s mostly because the model thinks she can do well against a large field as the only true progressive, but will inevitably struggle against moderate and liberal consolidation deep into the calendar. Newsom starts out very close to her in the fundamentals, with the best polling at the moment, the second-best fundraising, and ideological positioning in the middle of the party. The combination of these factors helps him overtake her. Meanwhile, the model doesn’t like Pete Buttigieg relative to his early polling since he doesn’t excel on any of the non-polling dimensions. Shapiro has an electability advantage and is considered a strong fundraiser. Whitmer is from an early state. And Booker could have a chance to catapult to the top tier with a strong showing with Black voters in South Carolina — historically a reliable pathway to the nomination.

As a paid subscriber or by signing up for a free trial, you can read on to see delegate accumulation over time, full state-by-state probabilities, candidate survival rates by primary, projected momentum across contests, and delegate distributions including likelihood to win pledged delegate majorities.