Sitemap - 2024 - The Intersection

America now has more Republicans than Democrats

How MAHA micro-influencers changed the election

How Selzer (or anyone else) can get an election wrong

Recriminations central

Big city realignment

How Trump seized the battlegrounds

The realignment is here

The book that explains the 2024 election

Why ________ won

What to watch for on Election Night

Will Arab Americans flip Michigan?

Maximum anxiety

North Carolina, State of Equilibrium

The 21 places that will decide the election

The trouble with modeled partisanship

Actually, you should look at margins, not vote share

The return of racial realigment

Big city warning signs for Democrats

What's behind the Republican surge in Pennsylvania voter registration?

Trump's bid for Catholic voters

The truth about campaign digital spending

Where Trump and Harris could outperform across the seven battlegrounds

The demographic swingometer returns

Preview: Will North Carolina vote to the left of Georgia?

Beware of phantom state polling swings

America's eight political tribes

The perils of a kitchen-sink debate strategy

Wisconsin, the sleeper tipping point state

RETVRN to 2020

How will we know if the polls are wrong again?

Was there a bounce?

Dem good news edition

It's the vibes, stupid

The Harris messaging challenge

Polls can't measure hypotheticals

Is this thing back on?

Preview the Wisconsin Battleground Brief

End of the double haters?

It was always Harris

A popular vote tie won’t be good enough for Biden

Is Arizona the Democrats’ Last Sun Belt Hope?

Debate debacle

Low-propensity blues

Forecasting dealer's choice

What's changed post-conviction?

The verdict and the data

Battleground Brief: An Arizona sneak peek

Who are Biden's defectors?

Can Trump turn the Silver State to gold?

The RFK X-Factor

The geography of dissatisfaction

Why Biden is playing to his base

Misleading youth vote indicators

Building an American voter

My Wall Street Journal op-ed

What would it take to swing the election?

RIP Hal Malchow

Racial realignment mega-thread

Super SOTU Week

21 Keys to the Keystone State

Is Trump falling short of expectations?

Will young men save Trump?

No one knows which ads work

Special election voters are different

Why the 2024 election is happening out of order

538's refreshed pollster ratings

Biden's working class New Hampshire woes

On to New Hampshire

How Pennsylvania became the deciding state

Iowa preview, Americans on the edge (of politics)

Drop-out math, 2024 as 1948